How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Bodo/Glimt host Sandefjord at home in an Eliteserien clash on 14 September 2026. Bodo/Glimt sit near the top of the table, while Sandefjord are down in 13th place out of 16 with 20 points from 19 games and a -8 goal difference. The gap to safety is narrow – KFUM sit one spot above with two points more and Kristiansund are just below with a single point less. Both sides will be looking to improve their positions, but the numbers show Bodo/Glimt as the clear favourite.
Bodo/Glimt have been in superb form over their last eight matches, winning seven and losing only once. Their recent results include a 5-0 loss to Bayern München away, a 2-1 win at Fredrikstad, a 4-2 victory over Rosenborg at home, a 2-1 win at Valerenga, a 4-0 home triumph over Lillestrom and a 3-0 away win against Sandefjord. In their last four home games they have won every match. Across those eight games they have scored 19 goals, let in nine, kept four clean sheets and failed to score just once. Most of those games have been high-scoring, with seven featuring three or more goals.
Sandefjord’s form has been far less convincing. In their last eight outings they have managed only one win, three draws and four defeats. Their recent scores are a 1-1 draw with Viking at home, a 0-0 stalemate with Brann, a 2-1 away win over Sarpsborg 08, a 1-0 loss to KFUM Oslo, a 1-0 defeat at Fredrikstad and a 3-0 home loss to Bodo/Glimt. The team comes into this match on two consecutive draws and has not played for ten days. On the road in their last three trips they have one win and two losses. In the eight-game stretch they have scored six goals, conceded eleven, kept a single clean sheet and have been shut out four times. Four of those games have seen three or more goals, with both sides scoring in half of them.
When the two clubs meet, Bodo/Glimt have the edge. In the last five meetings Bodo/Glimt have won three times, Sandefjord once and one match ended in a draw. Those games have averaged 2.6 goals. The most recent encounter was a 3-0 win for Bodo/Glimt on 26 July 2026. Given the recent high-scoring trend in Bodo/Glimt’s matches and Sandefjord’s occasional ability to find the net, we expect an open game with chances at both ends.
Our pick is Under 4.5 goals. The expected total is about 3.2 goals – roughly 2.5 for Bodo/Glimt and 0.7 for Sandefjord – so five goals would be needed to beat us. The price of 1.55 is longer than our reading of the game, making it attractive. We think the under will hit about 77% of the time. It would only go wrong if both teams suddenly produced a flood of goals, for example a 4-2 or higher scoreline, which seems unlikely given Sandefjord’s low scoring rate and Bodo/Glimt’s recent defensive record.
Recent results
Bodo/Glimt have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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