How it turned out
We projected about 3.8 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks very even. Our goal forecasts are 1.9 for Valerenga and 2.0 for Molde, which means almost nothing separates the two sides. That points to an open match with chances at both ends.
Both teams have been mixed in their recent form. Valerenga have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five league games. Molde have been a little stronger, with three wins, one draw and one loss, and they come in on two straight victories. In their last five meetings Molde have won four and drawn one, and those games have averaged four goals. The most recent encounter ended 5-1 to Molde.
We think the safest bet is Under 4.5 goals. The price is 1.38, which matches our view of the game. Our chance of this happening is about 73 out of 100, so we feel confident.
It would have to take a very high-scoring game for us to be wrong. If the two sides combine for five or more goals we lose. Because the line is close to our own estimate, we hold the view fairly strongly but recognise it is not a huge cushion.
Recent meetings
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