How it turned out
We projected about 5.0 goals; the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Viking to win 84%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Viking look the stronger side in this Eliteserien clash. Our goal expectations put them at about 3.9 each, while Aalesund sit at just over one. That gap shows Viking have the edge, but the numbers also suggest there will be chances for both teams, so the game should feel fairly open.
Looking back, Viking have been solid in their last five league outings, winning three, drawing one and losing one. Aalesund have struggled a bit more, with only one win, three draws and one loss in the same span. In the head-to-head record, Viking have the better edge – three wins, one loss and a draw in the last five meetings, with an average of 2.8 goals per game. The most recent encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, showing both sides can find the net.
Our pick is Viking to win. The price of 1.31 is longer than what we think the game is worth, which makes it an attractive option. We feel confident, giving the pick an 86 % chance of success. Viking’s stronger numbers and recent form back up the decision, and the price adds extra appeal.
It would have to take a big shift for us to be wrong. Aalesund would need to raise their scoring dramatically or Viking would have to drop sharply in performance. Even then, the odds of that happening are low, so we hold our view strongly.
Recent meetings
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