How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Nijmegen to score 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Ajax and 1.3 from Nijmegen, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Nijmegen to score. This is about Nijmegen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.3 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 1-1, with three drawn.
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