How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Willem II to score 1 or fewer 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Utrecht and 0.9 from Willem II, so Utrecht come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Willem II come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Willem II to score 1 or fewer. This is about Willem II's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Utrecht have won three of the last four meetings.
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