What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Cambuur and 3.3 from Nijmegen, so Nijmegen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Nijmegen to win. Nijmegen shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-3.3), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Cambuur only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty.
