How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Under 4.5 goals 72%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from For Sittard and 1.8 from Ajax, so Ajax come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
For Sittard come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.0 goals (xG 1.1-1.8), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 75%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Ajax have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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