How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Excelsior and 2.4 from PSV Eindhoven, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Excelsior come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.0 goals between the two (xG 1.6-2.4), landing about 77% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
PSV Eindhoven have won five of the last five meetings.
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