How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Excelsior and 2.4 from PSV Eindhoven, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 3.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 4.0 goals between the two (xG 1.6-2.4), landing about 60% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.94, which works out at about 52 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. At around 60% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
