How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Utrecht (Draw No Bet) 61%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Utrecht and 1.2 from AZ Alkmaar, so Utrecht come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Utrecht (Draw No Bet). Utrecht are favoured here (xG 1.6-1.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Utrecht defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
A draw hands your stake back, so only an outright AZ Alkmaar win beats you — but on the day nothing is guaranteed. We make it about 61%: a lean, not a lock.
