What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Excelsior and 1.9 from Twente, so Twente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Twente come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Excelsior to score 1 or fewer. This is about Excelsior's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.1 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 74%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.41, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
Twente have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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