What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Feyenoord and 1.3 from Ajax, so Feyenoord come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Feyenoord come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.9-1.3), and we make both teams to score about 65%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Ajax have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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