How it turned out
We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Feyenoord to win 75%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.5 goals from Feyenoord and 0.9 from For Sittard, so Feyenoord come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Feyenoord to win. Feyenoord are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.5-0.9), and we make them about 77% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.18, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Feyenoord have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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