How it turned out
We projected about 4.1 goals; the game finished with 7. We made PSV Eindhoven to win 89%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 3.4 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 0.7 from Willem II, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: PSV Eindhoven to win. PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.4-0.7), and we make them about 91% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 89 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.09, which works out at about 92 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
PSV Eindhoven have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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