What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Heerenveen and 1.1 from Zwolle, so Heerenveen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Heerenveen to win. Heerenveen are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.1), and we make them about 61% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which works out at about 61 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Zwolle only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 61% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
