What to expect
We expect about 2.1 goals from Nijmegen and 1.3 from Excelsior, so Nijmegen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.4 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 3.4 goals in total (xG 2.2-1.3), keeping it under more often than not (about 75%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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