How it turned out
We projected about 3.9 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Over 2.5 goals 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 1.1 from Heerenveen, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.9 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.9 goals between the two (xG 2.8-1.1), landing about 79% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
PSV Eindhoven have won four of the last five meetings.
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