PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen prediction

PSV EindhovenWWWDW

HeerenveenDLDLD

What to expect

We expect about 3.1 goals from PSV Eindhoven and 1.1 from Heerenveen, so PSV Eindhoven come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: PSV Eindhoven to win. PSV Eindhoven are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.1-1.1), and we make them about 79% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.23, which works out at about 81 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.

What the numbers say

✓PSV Eindhoven are unbeaten in their last five — four wins and one draw.

✓Heerenveen have not won any of their last five.

✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.

✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

21 Feb 2026PSV Eindhoven 3 - 1 Heerenveen

6 Dec 2025Heerenveen 0 - 2 PSV Eindhoven

8 Mar 2025PSV Eindhoven 2 - 1 Heerenveen

14 Dec 2024Heerenveen 1 - 0 PSV Eindhoven

25 Apr 2024Heerenveen 0 - 8 PSV Eindhoven

PSV Eindhoven have won four of the last five meetings.

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