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Football/Eredivisie/Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax
Eredivisie · Spartastadion

Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax prediction

Sparta Rotterdam crestSparta Rotterdam14th of 18 · 6 ptsDLLLD
v
Ajax crestAjax5th of 18 · 15 ptsLWWDD

What to expect

We expect about 1.3 goals from Sparta Rotterdam and 1.8 from Ajax, so Ajax come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Ajax come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.8), and we make both teams to score about 63%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.

What the numbers say
✓Sparta Rotterdam have not won any of their last five.
✓Ajax have won two of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.

Recent meetings

14 Mar 2026Ajax 4 - 0 Sparta Rotterdam
4 Oct 2025Sparta Rotterdam 3 - 3 Ajax
27 Apr 2025Ajax 1 - 1 Sparta Rotterdam
22 Dec 2024Sparta Rotterdam 0 - 2 Ajax
17 Mar 2024Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 2 Ajax
Ajax have won two of the last five meetings, with three drawn.

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