How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 4.5 goals 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Twente and 1.1 from Telstar, so Twente come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Under 4.5 goals. We make this around 3.1 goals (xG 1.9-1.1), so the line leaves room: it takes five or more to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 79%).
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.49, which works out at about 67 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent results
All two of the last meetings were drawn.
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