How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made AZ Alkmaar to win 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.8 goals from AZ Alkmaar and 0.9 from Willem II, so AZ Alkmaar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
AZ Alkmaar come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AZ Alkmaar to win. AZ Alkmaar are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.8-0.9), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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