What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Willem II and 1.8 from Excelsior, so Excelsior come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Correct score 1-1. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 1.4-1.5). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 12 out of 100. The price on offer is 6.80, which works out at about 15 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. The price is shorter than our own read of about 12%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
