Willem II v Excelsior: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Both teams to score 60%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Willem II and 1.8 from Excelsior, so Excelsior come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.8), and we make both teams to score about 61%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.