What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Nijmegen and 1.7 from Feyenoord, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Correct score 1-1. This is our most likely exact scoreline for the game (xG 1.7-1.8). Correct score is a long shot by nature, so treat it as a small-stakes punt rather than a banker.
We put the chance of that landing at about 9 out of 100. The price on offer is 8.90, which works out at about 11 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Correct score is unforgiving: the right winner but the wrong number still loses. We make it about 9% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
