What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from Zwolle and 1.9 from AZ Alkmaar, so AZ Alkmaar come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: AZ Alkmaar to win. AZ Alkmaar shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.9), and we make them about 55% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.55, which works out at about 65 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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