How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. We made FCI Levadia to win 79%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.7 goals from FCI Levadia and 0.7 from Pärnu JK Vaprus, so FCI Levadia come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: FCI Levadia to win. FCI Levadia are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.7-0.7), and we make them about 80% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.14, which works out at about 88 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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