How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Nõmme JK Kalju to win 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.3 goals from Nõmme JK Kalju and 0.7 from Narva Trans, so Nõmme JK Kalju come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Nõmme JK Kalju to win. Nõmme JK Kalju are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.7), and we make them about 75% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
The odds and results data behind this preview cost money every day it runs. If it was worth reading, you can help keep it free. Support us →
