Paide Linnameeskond v Harju Jalgpallikool: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Paide Linnameeskond to win 66%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.2 goals from Paide Linnameeskond and 0.9 from Harju Jalgpallikool, so Paide Linnameeskond come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Paide Linnameeskond to win. Paide Linnameeskond are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.9), and we make them about 68% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.

We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.63, which works out at about 61 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.