How it turned out
We projected about 3.7 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made FCI Levadia to win 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
FCI Levadia host Tammeka at home in the Meistriliiga on 27 October. Levadia sit top of the ten-team table with 84 points from 33 games and a huge +66 goal difference. Their lead is comfortable – the second-placed Paide Linnameeskond are 24 points behind. Tammeka are fifth with 50 points and a –5 goal difference, four points off the fourth-placed Nõmme JK Kalju and three points clear of Harju Jalgpallikool below them. Both clubs have played only a few days since their last matches, so the fixture comes on a short turnaround for each side.
Levadia have been in blistering form. In their last eight games they have won seven and drawn one, with no defeats. The most recent results are a 2-1 home win over Harju Jalgpallikool, a 2-0 away victory at FC Kuressaare, a 3-1 win away at Flora Tallinn, a 1-0 home win over Paide Linnameeskond, a 1-1 draw away at Narva Trans and a 6-0 home thrashing of Tammeka. Their last five home games are all wins. In this run they have scored 23 goals and let in only three, keeping five clean sheets. Five of those eight matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them.
Tammeka have struggled to find consistency. Over their last eight fixtures they have won three and lost five, with no draws. Their recent sequence includes a 5-1 home win over Narva Trans, a 2-0 away loss to Flora Tallinn, a 2-1 defeat away at Paide Linnameeskond, a 4-0 home victory over Nõmme United, a 3-1 home loss to Nõmme JK Kalju and the 6-0 away loss to Levadia. On the road they have one win and three defeats in their last four trips. In total they have scored 14 and conceded 17, keeping only one clean sheet and failing to find the net in three games. Their last match, the 5-1 win at home over Narva Trans, showed they can score, but the defensive record remains shaky.
The two sides have already met this season, with Levadia beating Tammeka 6-0 at home. That result suggests a one-sided affair, but the numbers also point to an open game. Levadia are expected to score in 94 % of their matches and to find the net twice or more in 79 % of them. Tammeka, on the other hand, score in just over half of their games and manage two goals in only 17 % of outings. Both teams have been involved in games with three or more goals, and the recent head-to-head shows Levadia capable of scoring freely while Tammeka struggle to keep a clean sheet. We expect the same pattern to continue.
We pick Levadia to win. The price of 1.20 is shorter than our own reading of the game, which gives Levadia about a 79 % chance of victory. The odds look good for a simple win. For this pick to go wrong, Tammeka would need to rediscover the attacking spark of their 5-1 win and keep Levadia quiet, something they have done only rarely this season. If Levadia drop points, it would have to be a low-scoring draw, which is unlikely given their high scoring probability. All signs point to Levadia coming out on top.
Recent results
FCI Levadia have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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