How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Pärnu JK Vaprus or Draw 71%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Pärnu JK Vaprus host FC Kuressaare at home in the Meistriliiga on 28 October. Vaprus sit eighth in a ten-team table with 36 points, just one point ahead of Kuressaare who are ninth with 35. Both clubs sit in the relegation zone and a single point could move either side out of danger. The numbers show Vaprus as the stronger side – they are expected to score more and they have a higher chance of finding the net at least once. The price of 1.38 matches our own reading of a tight contest where Vaprus have a slight edge.
Vaprus have not been in good form. In their last eight matches they have managed only one win, two draws and five defeats. The most recent results were a 4-2 loss away to Nõmme United, a 2-0 loss away to Harju Jalgpallikool and a 2-2 draw at home with Nõmme JK Kalju. Before that they drew 2-2 with Narva Trans at home, lost 3-2 away to Flora Tallinn and fell 2-0 away to Paide Linnameeskond. In those eight games they have scored 11 goals and let in 21. They have failed to score in three of the matches and five of the games have seen both sides hit the net. Their last three home games have been a win and two draws, so they have avoided defeat at Pärnu recently.
Kuressaare have also struggled. Over their last seven outings they have recorded two wins, one draw and four losses. Their newest fixtures were a 1-0 defeat at home to Paide Linnameeskond, a 2-0 loss at home to FCI Levadia and a 0-0 draw away at Harju Jalgpallikool. Prior to that they beat Narva Trans 1-0 away, beat Flora Tallinn 2-0 at home and lost 3-1 at home to Tammeka. In this run they have scored only four goals while conceding ten. They have kept three clean sheets but have also failed to find the net in four games. Their last three road matches produced a win, a draw and a loss, showing they can pick up points away from home, but the short four-day turnaround may leave them tired.
The two clubs have met before, but the record is not supplied, so we cannot comment on past head-to-head results. Given the recent form of both sides, the game is likely to be low-scoring and tight. Vaprus have been involved in several games with three or more goals, but Kuressaare have kept three clean sheets in their recent run. Expect a cautious approach from both teams, with each trying to avoid another defeat that could push them deeper into the relegation battle.
Our pick is Vaprus or a draw at odds of 1.38. The price sits close to our own reading of the match. Vaprus are a little better on paper and they have the home advantage, yet they have not scored in three of their last eight games and have been leaking goals. A draw would protect us if the visitors manage to hold firm. The pick would go wrong if Kuressaare score twice and keep Vaprus off the board, or if the game opens up and ends with more than two goals, allowing the draw to slip away. With a 70 % chance of success in our view, the price looks good for a safe, sensible bet.
Recent results
The last five meetings are split 2-2, with one drawn.
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