How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Narva Trans or Draw 64%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Narva Trans host Nõmme United at home in the final round of the Estonia Meistriliiga. Both clubs sit at the bottom of the table. Narva Trans are 10th with 20 points from 33 games and a goal difference of minus 49. Nõmme United sit just one place above them in 9th, with 34 points and a minus 22 goal difference. The two are only 14 points apart, but both are in the relegation zone. A point for either side could keep them a step away from the drop, while a loss would deepen the danger. The numbers we have suggest a fairly open game with chances for both sides.
Narva Trans have not won any of their last six matches. Their most recent results are a 5-1 loss away to Tammeka, a 2-1 defeat away at Paide Linnameeskond, a 1-0 loss at home to FC Kuressaare, a 2-2 draw away at Pärnu JK Vaprus, a 1-1 draw at home against FCI Levadia and a 2-0 loss away to Nõmme JK Kalju. In those six games they have scored five goals and let in 13. They failed to find the net in two of the matches. Three of the games produced three or more goals and both sides scored in four of them. The side also played just four days ago, so they come into this fixture on a short turnaround.
Nõmme United have a mixed recent run. Their last six results are a 4-2 win at home over Pärnu JK Vaprus, a 3-0 victory at home against Nõmme JK Kalju, a 2-0 loss away to Harju Jalgpallikool, a 4-0 defeat away at Tammeka, a 3-1 loss at home to Paide Linnameeskond and a 3-2 defeat at home to Flora Tallinn. They have scored ten goals and conceded 14 in this spell. They kept one clean sheet and failed to score in two games. Five of the six matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them. Like Narva Trans, they also played only four days ago, so fatigue could be a factor.
The two clubs have met before in the league, but the exact past scorelines are not listed, so we cannot draw on a detailed history. Given the recent form of both sides – Narva Trans on three straight defeats and Nõmme United on two straight wins – the match is likely to be tightly contested. Both teams have shown they can both score and concede, and the statistical outlook points to an open game with chances at both ends.
Our pick is Narva Trans or a draw. The price of 1.86 is longer than what we feel the game deserves, making it an attractive offer. We think the home side will at least hold their own, especially after a short break, and the odds give us a good safety net. For this bet to fail, Narva Trans would need to lose outright, which would require Nõmme United to dominate despite the short turnaround. We see a 64 % chance of our selection being right, and we feel the price makes the wager worthwhile.
Recent results
Narva Trans have won three of the last five meetings.
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