How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Nõmme JK Kalju to win 66%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Nõmme JK Kalju and 0.9 from Harju Jalgpallikool, so Nõmme JK Kalju come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Nõmme JK Kalju come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Nõmme JK Kalju to win. Nõmme JK Kalju are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.9), and we make them about 67% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 66 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.50, which works out at about 67 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Nõmme JK Kalju have won four of the last five meetings.
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