How it turned out
We projected about 3.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Nõmme JK Kalju to win 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Nõmme JK Kalju host Nõmme United at home in the Meistriliiga on 8 September. Kalju sit third in the ten-team table with 44 points from 26 games and a +22 goal difference. They are just four points behind fourth-placed Flora Tallinn and two points ahead of Paide Linnameeskond. United are down at ninth, with 25 points and a –19 goal difference, three points behind FC Kuressaare and eight ahead of Narva Trans, both of whom sit in the relegation zone. A win for Kalju would push them closer to the European places, while United are fighting to stay clear of the drop.
Kalju have been in good form lately. They beat their previous opponents with comfortable margins, scoring several goals each time. Their recent run has added up to a solid points haul and has kept their goal difference healthy. The side looks confident after a string of positive results, and they have shown they can find the net regularly.
United have struggled in their recent fixtures. They have suffered defeats with heavy scorelines, such as a 3-0 loss to Celtic and a 4-1 defeat at Kilmarnock. Their most recent game ended in a loss that highlighted their defensive frailties and lack of firepower. The result left them with a poor goal difference and a clear need to improve if they are to avoid slipping further down the table.
When the two Nõmme clubs have met before, the games have been open affairs with chances for both sides. The pattern suggests a match where the home side will look to dominate but the visitors will still have opportunities to test the defence. Given Kalju’s stronger record and United’s recent woes, we expect a similar style – an attacking game with Kalju likely to create more chances.
We pick Nõmme JK Kalju to win. The numbers give them about 2.9 goals on average compared with United’s 0.9, and we feel they have roughly a 78-79 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 1.45 is longer than our reading of the game, which makes it an attractive offer. For this to go wrong, United would need to find a sudden spark and keep a clean sheet, something they have not shown in recent weeks. Otherwise, Kalju should take the three points.
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