How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Pärnu JK Vaprus to win 44%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Pärnu JK Vaprus and 1.3 from Harju Jalgpallikool, so Pärnu JK Vaprus come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Pärnu JK Vaprus to win. Pärnu JK Vaprus are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.6-1.3), and we make them about 46% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.55, which works out at about 39 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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