What to expect
We expect about 2.3 goals from Anderlecht and 0.9 from Kairat Almaty, so Anderlecht come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Anderlecht to win. Anderlecht are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.3-0.9), and we make them about 70% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
Kairat Almaty only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 70%: a lean, not a lock.
