How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Omonia Nicosia to win 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tilted in Omonia Nicosia’s favour. The numbers give them about 2.2 goals while St. Truidense VV are expected to score less than one. That gap makes Omonia the clear stronger side. With a total of three goals expected, the match should have a few chances but it is not likely to turn into a goal-fest.
Omonia have not been on a good run lately. In their last five league outings they have managed just one win, drawn twice and lost twice. They also come into this tie after two straight defeats. St. Truidense’s recent form isn’t listed, so we can only judge from the overall expectation that Omonia still hold the edge.
We pick Omonia Nicosia to win. Our own view gives them a 76 % chance of coming out on top. The price of 2.03 is longer than what we think the game is worth, which makes the pick attractive. It is a simple bet on the stronger side rather than looking for a bigger payout elsewhere.
The pick would go wrong if Omonia fail to break down a stubborn defence or if they slip again after their recent losses. A surprise early goal for St. Truidense could also change the flow. Even so, we still feel fairly confident, holding the view strongly but aware that football can be unpredictable.
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