How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 2. We made CSKA Sofia to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
The game looks tilted in CS Sofia’s favour. Our goal numbers put them at about 1.7 each, while OFI Crete sit under one. That gap makes CS Sofia the clear stronger side. The match should have a few chances but not be a goal-fest, with just under three goals expected in total.
Recent form does not help CS Sofia’s case. In their last five league outings, whether at home or away, they have only managed one win and have been beaten four times. OFI Crete’s recent results are not listed, so we can’t compare them directly. The past meetings between the clubs are also not given, so we have no history to lean on. Still, the numbers suggest CS Sofia should be able to edge it.
Our pick is CS Sofia to win. We think they have about a 61 % chance of coming out on top. The price on offer is 1.46, which is a bit shorter than we feel the game deserves. That makes the bet look attractive – you get a decent return for a side that the numbers favour.
It would go wrong if CS Sofia can’t break their poor run and fail to score. A single goal from OFI Crete would be enough to spoil the pick. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the belief at a solid but not unshakeable level.
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