How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Lech Poznan to win 53%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Lech Poznan come into this Europa League tie as the clear favourite. The goal expectations are 1.1 for Thun and 1.6 for Poznan, so we expect a modest scoring game with the visitors a little ahead. The numbers suggest a fairly open match but with a slight edge to the away side.
Looking at recent form, Poznan have not lost in their last five league outings, recording three wins and two draws. They have also arrived on the back of two straight victories. Those results show a team that is hard to beat and carrying confidence into this game.
Our pick is a Lech Poznan win. We see them as about a 55 % chance of coming out on top, and the price of 2.32 is longer than our own reading of the match. That makes the odds attractive for a straightforward bet on the stronger side.
For this to go wrong, Thun would need to surprise with a solid defensive display and either score first or hold a clean sheet. If the game stays very tight and low-scoring, the upset becomes more likely. We still feel reasonably confident in our view, but we recognise a narrow margin could flip the result.
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