How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 4. We made Ferencvarosi TC (Draw No Bet) 63%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
The game looks fairly even, but the numbers give Ferencvarosi a slight edge. They are expected to score about one and a half goals while Trabzonspor are around one goal. That means the match could be tight, but Ferencvarosi have the better chance of finding the net. It should not be a free-flowing goal-fest, but there is room for both sides to create chances.
Looking back, the two clubs have split their recent head-to-heads – each has a win and there have been no draws. Those games have produced an average of three goals, so they tend to be open enough to see a couple of strikes. In the league, Ferencvarosi have won two of their last five games and lost three, while Trabzonspor have only one win, two draws and two defeats in the same span. The most recent encounter ended 1-0 to Trabzonspor back in November 2022.
We back Ferencvarosi on a draw-no-bet. The price of 2.15 is longer than what we think the game is worth, which makes the bet attractive. If Ferencvarosi win, the stake pays out; if the match ends level we get our money back, so only a loss for the home side would hurt us. Our confidence in this outcome is about 68 %.
The pick could go wrong if Trabzonspor manage to keep a clean sheet and score the only goal, as they have shown they can win away. A defensive lapse from Ferencvarosi or a sudden surge from the visitors would also flip the result. We still feel fairly strong about our view, but we know a single goal could change everything.
Recent meetings
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