What to expect
We expect about 1.3 goals from Harrogate and 1.8 from Bury, so Bury come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Bury to win. Bury shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.3-1.8), and we make them about 56% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 5.20, which works out at about 19 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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