How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made AB Argir to win 45%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
AB Argir host B68 Toftir at home in the Betri deildin on 11 September. AB sit sixth in the ten-team table with 23 points from 21 games, three places above the relegation zone but still eight points shy of the safety of Víkingur above them. B68 are bottom of the league, tenth with 16 points and a –21 goal difference, already in the relegation places. A win for AB could see them inch closer to the mid-table safety cushion, while B68 will be desperate to pick up any points to avoid the drop. The numbers give AB an edge, with an expected 1.8 goals to B68’s 1.2.
AB’s recent form has been mixed. They beat Skála 2-1, then drew 0-0 with Víkingur, and suffered a 3-0 loss to KÍ. Before that they won 1-0 at home against HB and lost 2-1 away to NSÍ. In total they have scored five goals and conceded four in their last five matches. The run shows they can pick up points but also that they are vulnerable to heavy defeats.
B68’s last five fixtures have been a string of setbacks. They lost 4-1 to Kilmarnock, then 3-0 to Celtic, followed by a 2-2 draw with EB/Streymur, a 1-0 defeat at home to TB, and most recently a 2-1 loss away to ÍF. The latest game was a narrow 2-1 defeat in which they managed to find the net but could not keep the result level. Across those five games they have scored six and let in twelve, highlighting defensive frailty and a lack of consistency in attack.
When the two clubs have met before, the matches have tended to be low-scoring affairs, with each side finding the net only once or twice over several meetings. Given AB’s slightly better defensive record and the fact that B68 are conceding heavily at the bottom of the table, we expect another tight game with few chances. AB’s home advantage and marginally better goal expectation suggest they will control the tempo and keep the scoreline modest.
We back AB Argir to win. The price of 1.93 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, but the odds still give us a decent return for a 45 % chance of success. AB are the stronger side on the numbers, and B68’s recent form makes a win unlikely. The pick would go wrong if B68 manage to tighten up defensively and snatch a surprise goal, or if AB drop points again as they have done in recent draws and defeats. Otherwise, taking AB to come out on top looks the cleaner play.
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