How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made HB Tórshavn (Draw No Bet) 82%, but the stake came back in full.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Skála and 2.2 from HB Tórshavn, so HB Tórshavn come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: HB Tórshavn (Draw No Bet). HB Tórshavn are favoured here (xG 0.9-2.2), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a HB Tórshavn defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 82 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.34, which works out at about 75 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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