What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from PAOK and 0.8 from Aris, so PAOK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Aris come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.9-0.8), and three is enough to land it, landing about 63% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 61 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓PAOK have won two of their last five.
✓Aris are unbeaten in their last five — five wins and no draws.
✓Three of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in two of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
8 Feb 2026Aris 0 - 0 PAOK
7 Dec 2025PAOK 3 - 1 Aris
19 Jan 2025Aris 0 - 0 PAOK
29 Sept 2024PAOK 0 - 1 Aris
19 May 2024Aris 1 - 2 PAOK
