What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Panathinaikos and 0.7 from Panetolikos, so Panathinaikos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Panetolikos come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Panathinaikos to win. Panathinaikos are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.8-0.7), and we make them about 65% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
Panetolikos only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. The price is shorter than our own read of about 65%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
