Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata prediction

What to expect

We expect about 1.6 goals from Asteras Tripolis and 1.5 from Kalamata, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 1.6-1.5), landing about 83% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.

We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.