How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Under 3.5 goals 76%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.6 goals from Asteras Tripolis and 1.5 from Olympiakos, so Olympiakos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 0.6-1.5), keeping it under more often than not (about 78%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 76 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.33, which works out at about 75 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent meetings
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