What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Asteras Tripolis and 1.5 from Olympiakos, so Olympiakos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Our pick: Olympiakos to win. Olympiakos shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.6-1.5), and we make them about 64% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Asteras Tripolis to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 64%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
