What to expect
We expect about 0.6 goals from Kifisia and 1.8 from AEK, so AEK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.5 goals between the two (xG 0.6-1.8), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
If one side settles for what they have, or the game turns cagey, the goals can dry up in a hurry. The price is shorter than our own read of about 73%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
