What to expect
We expect about 0.8 goals from Atromitos and 1.6 from AEK, so AEK come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Atromitos come into this on two straight defeats. AEK come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: AEK to win. AEK shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.9-1.6), and we make them about 60% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 58 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.38, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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