What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Atromitos and 1.2 from Kalamata, so Atromitos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.2 goals between the two (xG 2.0-1.2), landing about 69% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 69 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
An early goal can kill the tempo just as easily as spark it, and a quiet second half leaves this short. At around 69% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
