What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Iraklis and 1.2 from Asteras Tripolis, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Iraklis come into this on two straight defeats. Asteras Tripolis come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.4-1.2) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 59%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
One thing to watch
One end-to-end spell, or a defensive mistake, and the goals can pile up before either side settles. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 59%.
