How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 1.5 goals 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.5 goals from Panetolikos and 1.3 from Kalamata, so Panetolikos come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.9 goals between the two (xG 1.5-1.3), landing about 78% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.46, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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