How it turned out
We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 67%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from PAE PS Kalamata and 1.3 from Aris, so Aris come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Aris come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.1 goals in total (xG 0.8-1.3), keeping it under more often than not (about 69%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 67 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
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