What to expect
We expect about 1.9 goals from Panathinaikos and 0.7 from Kifisia, so Panathinaikos come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. Low-scoring lean. The model projects about 2.6 in total.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Panathinaikos have won two of their last five.
One thing to watch
Cagey games can burst open late, and a couple of goals in the closing stages would be enough to catch this out. We make it about 77% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
